21世纪全球人口在不断放缓的增长脚步中,人类将走向持续普遍的老龄化。中国人口占全人类的份额将迅速下降,并对全球老龄化进程产生举足轻重的影响。中国是世界上老年人口规模最大的国家,也将是人口老龄化速度最快的国家。中国正在进入一个持续40年的高速老龄化时期,将使我国人口转向重度老龄化和高龄化。全面两孩生育政策的实施,对我国人口和老龄化趋势的影响极为有限。适应、应对乃至引领中国的老龄社会,需要在长期发展战略的高度上设计一个基于社会整合的综合性的经济、社会、人口政策的框架体系。

The 21st century will see a widespread rapid population ageing of the humanity with the increasingly slower pace of world population growth. China is playing a decisive role in the world’s population ageing despite that China’s population share is shrinking. China has the largest size of both total population and elderly population, and is a country expected to experience the most rapid ageing in the world. The continuous high speed of population ageing in the next 40 years would turn China into a hyper-aged society. The implementation of the universal two-child policy would have very limited effect on the population and the future trend of ageing. In addressing the ageing challenge, there is a need from a long-term strategic height to formulate a comprehensive framework system incorporating economic, social and demographic policies on the basis of an overall societal integration.